A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the country and caused chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions range over national emblems, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but each side has got important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster should participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
